Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
