A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
